Scholz's Last Breath

Time is running out for Olaf Scholz. Germany’s Social Democrats have their worst showing in federal elections in more than a century.

If Scholz thought he could escape retribution after his party was relegated to a humiliating third place by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), he may be mistaken. Scholz says that there is no talk of early elections, but that is not up to him.

“Olaf Scholz must call new elections, like Macron,” Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder said on German public television after the election. Even a columnist for the left-wing newspaper Die Zeit called for new elections this summer. “As in France, the European elections were a vote of no confidence in the government,” wrote Alan Posener.

Just two and a half years into Scholz’s tenure, his fractious government has reached a breaking point. Mired in internal infighting and simple incompetence, Scholz led the most unpopular government in modern German history, with more than two-thirds of Germans expressing dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition.

His personal approval rating also set a negative record, with more than 70 percent of Germans dissatisfied with the job he has done. After failing to pass a landmark reform aimed at switching Germany’s heating infrastructure away from fossil fuels and towards renewables, Scholz’s government suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the country’s highest court, which ruled its budget unconstitutional.

The decision in November deprived the coalition of tens of billions of euros it had relied on to finance the rest of its agenda. In most parliamentary systems, the unwritten rules of democratic etiquette would have forced the country’s leader to call new elections after Scholz’s landslide defeat in the election. But not in Germany.

Calls for early elections are likely to grow louder in September, when elections are held in the east of the country in three states where the ADF is strongest; the party is likely to win all three contests. This is another reason why Scholz’s days as chancellor may be numbered.