Sergey Stankevich
On June 30, France will host the first round of early parliamentary elections initiated by President Macron.
According to a June 26 Bloomberg poll, Le Pen’s party will win the first round with a result of 35.8%. The New Popular Front will come in second with 28.6%, while Macron’s Renaissance party and its allies will take a combined third place with 20.5%.
Most pollsters predict National Unity will form the largest group in the National Assembly, but it may not have enough votes to win the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
According to the latest Odoxa poll, the party will win between 250 and 300 seats after the second round. This scenario, in which the National Rally wins a majority of seats in the legislature but falls short of an absolute majority, would likely lead to a deadlock in the lower house, meaning it would be difficult to pass any ambitious legislation or reform.
Dmitri Drobnitsky
Alexander Rimov
