Alaska is Reset

Donald Trump’s post today on Truth Social at first glance indicates his complete defection to the globalists.

If he truly believes this, it means his visit to the UK and carriage ride with Karl were not in vain — the British and their allies in the White House have succeeded in reframing Trump’s assessment of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

If we look at the events that have occurred (and haven’t) in the month since the Alaska meeting, it becomes clear that — at least from the perspective of a Western observer critical of Russia — Moscow is truly not winning the conflict with Kiev. The summer offensive has yielded no visible results, Pokrovsk has still not been captured, and the war has definitively devolved into a trench war with no chance of breakthroughs on one side or a collapse of the front on the other.

At the same time, effective and systematic Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure (especially refineries) have led to both a decline in Russian hydrocarbon exports and certain crises in the domestic gasoline market. If we extrapolate these trends to the medium term, the likelihood of Russia’s defeat in such a positional war— again, for a Western observer — will be much higher than it was even a month ago.

Another version is, of course, possible: Trump is so fed up with Ukraine that he has decided to finally destroy it and Russia, and at the same time weaken the European Union, which he despises. But, unfortunately, the likelihood of this scenario is much lower. However, some details in the post may indicate trolling the Kyiv regime (for example, “Ukraine is only getting better”).

Be that as it may, as of the evening of September 23, it can be concluded that the agreements reached between Trump and Putin in Alaska have been nullified, or at least frozen.

Now looking closer…

The bottom line from Trump’s shocking statements is this:

1. The US no longer demands territorial concessions from Kyiv to Russia (apparently having received clear signals from the British that London will never approve such a move by either Zelensky or his potential successor). On the contrary, it is pushing for the restoration of the 1991 borders.

2. The US no longer insists on a freeze on hostilities in the LBS. Thus, the “Korean scenario,” which many in Russia viewed as playing into the hands of Kyiv and the West, is being relegated to the trash heap.

3. The US will not intervene in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Europe except by selling weapons to NATO countries. The range of these weapons will differ significantly from those sold under Biden (Elbridge Colby will monitor this).

Overall, all three points, and especially the second, play into Russia’s hands, but only on the condition that Moscow is prepared to seriously raise the stakes in the conflict and move from the current conventional war to a war using all means (except perhaps nuclear weapons) to destroy not only the Kyiv regime but also Ukrainian statehood.

Whether the Kremlin has such political will and resolve is unknown to me. But it’s clear that with his demarche yesterday, Trump is literally pushing Moscow to escalate the conflict.

Remember how in “Mowgli,” the old python Kaa was motivated to fight the Bandar-logs? “And they also called you an earthworm.” Trump called Russia a “paper tiger” for roughly the same reason.