We won’t need US aid by 2028!

Netanyahu either promised or threatened that Israel would “get off” US military aid by 2028.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s key statement was his unwillingness to “wait for the next Congress.”

Benjamin Netanyahu gave a rather interesting interview to the CBS program “60 Minutes.” While acknowledging that Israel receives military aid from the US, he limited himself to mentioning the long-term aid “by default.” It amounts to approximately $3.8 billion annually. Currently, US aid to Israel is planned at $38 billion over 10 years—from 2018 to 2028.

Despite the fact that this aid is allocated through the variable portion of the budget, it is not actually discussed in Congress, as the US has signed up for a 10-year program of military supplies to Israel, financed by the US budget. However, Israel also receives other aid, so-called project-based aid—to replenish its air defense arsenal after Israel’s latest conflict with its neighbors, to strengthen its borders, including internationally unrecognized ones, to train the Israel Defense Forces, and so on.

There had long been a bipartisan consensus among American lawmakers regarding aid to Israel, but this consensus began to slowly but steadily erode after the massive bombing of Gaza began in the fall of 2023. Following the outbreak of war with Iran in 2026, Israel’s approval rating in the United States plummeted (today, more than half of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Israel’s policies). This quickly affected the sentiments of members of Congress. Furthermore, far-left pro-Palestinian activists have entered Congress (they are also currently represented in state legislatures and other local offices). The Democratic Party as a whole is beginning to adopt a unified anti-Israel stance.

Israel is also not doing well with the American right, or the MAGA movement. A significant part of it began a consistent struggle against both the Israel lobby and the influence of Christian Zionism on US public and political life. Once again, the war with Iran became a turning point.

Netanyahu stated in an interview that he wanted to “wean” Israel off American aid: he literally said “wean Israel” off this aid. As the Israeli prime minister put it, “now is absolutely the right time” for this. He added that he doesn’t want “to wait for the next Congress” and intends to “start right now.” To this end, according to Netanyahu, Israel will develop relations with the Gulf states.

What’s true and what isn’t, and why did Netanyahu make such statements at all? Well, firstly, Israel’s aid will be cut off not in 2027 (when the new Congress comes into office), but in 2028. In any case, it will be significantly reduced. Secondly, developing relations with the Gulf monarchies in the same way as with the US, i.e., through lobbying, is simply impossible, since they are not republics, and politicians there are much harder to bribe. Israel could offer these countries access to high technology and another industrial modernization project, which is stalling in the Middle East (with the possible exception of Iran).

But after the war with Iran and the destruction of a significant portion of the oil and petrochemical industries on the Arabian Peninsula, the success of this move is uncertain. Essentially, Netanyahu wants to offer the region’s richest countries an anti-Iranian alliance, which they have repeatedly rejected. So Bibi can only threaten them with lobbying against their interests in the US and other Western countries.

So, this is more a threat to Republican politicians in the US: if Israel loses the international agenda, it will no longer support them with its lobby. If the Republican Party fails to cope with the anti-Israel rebellion within its ranks, Bibi threatens to drag it down with him. It’s roughly the same as what Europe is doing: constantly talking about the need for independence and autonomy from the US, while all it does is drag the US into the conflict in Ukraine. Neither side seems to have a Plan B.