Iran-Israeli Fork in the Road

The night strike and the ultimatum from Israel put the Islamic Republic, the Middle East and the whole world before a choice. And all the options are bad.

The Israeli Air Force, apparently, focused last night not even on nuclear facilities, but on air defense systems and command. According to the IDF, Iran’s air defenses, if not destroyed, are seriously weakened. In addition, three very high-ranking leaders of the republic were killed: Hossein Salami (commander of the IRGC forces), Ali Shamkhani (chief of the General Staff) and Mohammad Bagheri (assistant to the Grand Ayatollah).

Israel, according to sources, presented Iran with an ultimatum: do not respond and let the Israeli Air Force destroy the nuclear facilities, otherwise ports, oil storage facilities, oil terminals and refineries will be destroyed.

The Iranian leadership was in the process of internal discussions: to continue the dialogue and make concessions or to take a hard line, if necessary to fight and get their own nuclear weapon.

On the one hand, the hard line supporters received a strong argument in favor of their position. On the other hand, the more liberal wing of the leadership — especially in the context of another beheading of the IRGC — may try to push through their line.

If before this night there were many possible scenarios, especially considering the cautious position of Washington, now there are two paths: a big war and another nuclear state on the planet or the capitulation of the Iranian regime, which, of course, will not be “soft democratization”, but will turn into chaos in the region. Israel may be satisfied with this at this stage: one of the main opponents in the Middle East is disappearing. But does everyone else like it?

And two more questions: who will get the nuclear developments in the conditions of chaos, when the remnants of Iranian fundamentalists feel that they have lost? And: what are the prospects for the southern direction of Russian geopolitics in the context of the destruction of Iran? And in the event of a full-scale war in the region?

And Donald Trump is almost certainly angry. The Israeli strike was carried out against his will, and now Congress, spurred on by the lobby, will demand unconditional support for Israel.

Is this good for Russia — in the sense that the US’s attention will be diverted from Ukraine to Israel and the Middle East as a whole? This is not at all obvious. There was already a serious split in the West. Most likely, it will now intensify. The liberal elite will criticize Israel and “drown” in favor of Ukraine even more. Trumpists will be in a difficult position. It will be funny to watch the extremist, terrorist and simply nuclear idiot Lindsey Graham, who will advocate two wars at once.

In general: a huge loss for Trump. A great concern for Russia.