Dmitri Drobnitsky
The leaders of the United States, Israel, and Iran have declared victory in the “12-day war” one after another. Which means, alas, there will be a continuation.
Ayatollah Khamenei has closed the circle. He appeared on state television and announced that Iran’s nuclear facilities “remained intact.” Yes, they were bombed, but the Americans and Israelis failed to achieve “significant results,” according to the Iranian Supreme Leader.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump had previously declared their victory. In short, everyone has won…
Considering the real damage (which Israel and Iran have yet to fully assess), the true number of victims (which no one has yet announced), and the fear that has been endured in the region, one might expect that the parties would calm down for a while, recoiling from the line they almost crossed.
But I’m afraid that everything will be exactly the opposite. Because in reality, everyone has lost a little bit. (Some, however, believe that not a little bit.)
Iran has suffered losses in the leadership of the army and the IRGC, as well as among scientists. The government has demonstrated (at least in the first two days) inefficiency and sluggishness. In Israel, or rather, in relation to Netanyahu, his Likud and the right-wing parties that have joined him, there are no fewer questions. Not to mention that Bibi’s almost religious promise to the Israeli people that the US is about to destroy Iran has not been fulfilled.
And Trump. He has seriously (though not completely) fallen out with the MAGA wing of his party. He is being criticized, some are even turning away from him. And if the setup with the leak from military intelligence continues with promotion, the damage will become even more obvious.
And when everyone has lost a little, it is simply a breeding ground for those who will demand a second act. And a third… And so on.
Especially since no one has yet made serious and systematic efforts to pacify the region. On the contrary, there are too many people interested in wars.
Yuri Chekalin
Sergey Stankevich
